There are a plethora of interesting NBA storylines from a very eventful 2017-2018 regular season, many of them having bled over from the season itself. Are the Warriors going to live up to these dynasty expectations? What can LeBron do with the least talented Cavaliers team that he’s been a part of since his return? Do the Rockets really believe they can unseat Golden State? Does Brad Stevens have enough tricks up his sleeve to lead a battered Boston Celtics squad through a playoff run? And where on earth is Kawhi Leonard?
If any of those don’t grab your attention, consider this: for the first time in a number of years, there isn’t a single team that you can look at and say they are the wholesome favorite. For nearly a half-decade, you could say that about the Warriors. But with Steve Kerr and Co. battling injuries and a rather anemic second half, they’re far from the guarantee we all thought they’d be. With that in mind, it’s time to look into what sort of wild ride that these playoffs will be taking us on this spring.
Western Conference
(1) Houston Rockets vs. (8) Minnesota Timberwolves
Losing Jimmy Butler for a couple months really staggered the growth of the Wolves, who were a popular preseason pick to make some serious noise with the acquisition of the former Bull. While Butler being back is more representative of the Minnesota team that was sitting in third place for much of the season before an end-of-year decline (that essentially forced them into a play-in game with Denver), it’s hard to see it being enough to slay the behemoth that is the Houston Rockets. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are dripping with talent, but they’re still building into their primes. Houston, meanwhile, has numerous veteran players with playoff experience. MVP front-runner James Harden put up the best statistical season of his career, finished with one of the most efficient offensive scoring seasons of all time, and as an elite scorer in isolation appears to be a troublesome matchup against a team that plays their starters more than anyone else in the association. Patience paid off for Houston with the development of Clint Capela, who has become a defensive star and a capable inside presence to lead one of the league’s most improved defenses to the number one overall seed in the West. Revisit this matchup in a few seasons and the sexier pick is Timberwolves, but this year? It’s all Rockets. Prediction: Rockets in 5
(2) Golden State Warriors vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs
The big story here is the absence of the two of the most valuable players on each team: Golden State’s Stephen Curry and San Antonio’s Kawhi Leonard. Without them, the teams are hardly pushovers, but the dynamic does indeed change. How could it not without two of the league’s most talented players? Even without Curry, the Warriors possess Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, an all-star cast of ballers, which on paper alone puts the Spurs in a difficult position. A renaissance year from LaMarcus Aldridge (a career-high 57.0 true shooting percentage) gives Gregg Popovich a weapon that the Warriors don’t match up with well, but if this is a game about matchups, then Steve Kerr has Popovich beat at every other spot on the floor. All that Curry does is bring the Warriors and their out-of-this-world offensive efficiency back down closer to earth, but their deceptively strong defense that powers the NBA’s most lethal transition game should be able to outmatch some great game planning by the Spurs. Kevin Durant won’t be denied in his ring chasing quest. Prediction: Warriors in 4
(3) Portland Trailblazers vs. (6) New Orleans Pelicans
Most of the talk in Portland is centered around the elite backcourt that Terry Stotts has to play with between Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, proven scorers that can get red hot in an instant. But that narrative takes away from what was one of the better defensive teams in the NBA this season, and a supporting cast of solid role players gives the Blazers enough to make some headlines. The Pelicans represent what might be the biggest “what if?” question of the season when DeMarcus Cousins went down with an Achilles injury. Anthony Davis responded with a Herculean post-all-star break run, carrying the team on the strength of outrageous numbers on both sides of the ball. What’s lost in this matchup is that the Pelicans finished just a game behind the Blazers in the standings, so this is hardly a 3-6 matchup. I think Davis presents the biggest problem in the series, and that’s because the underappreciated defense of Jrue Holiday at the point might do enough to stabilize Lillard. If Holiday can take him out of his rhythm, this might be an upset. The Blazers don’t have an answer for the Brow. Prediction: Pelicans in 7
(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz surprised a lot of people this season, turning rookie Donovan Mitchell into a young star after stepping in for the departed Gordon Hayward. Rudy Gobert has stayed on track with his development and has blossomed into one of the most imposing shot-blocking centers in the NBA. Ricky Rubio became a more efficient and reliable distributor for a Jazz team centered on spreading the ball around. It’s a tough mixer for Oklahoma City, who despite having the bigger names and better overall athletes on their side, have faced an uphill battle of consistency. Russell Westbrook once again averaged a triple-double per game on the season, a truly remarkable feat, but Paul George was hot and cold throughout the season, and Carmelo Anthony posted the some of the least impactful numbers of his career. The Thunder are maybe the most difficult case to crack among playoff teams, as talent alone could catapult them on a wild ride to the Western Conference Finals, but the Jazz are better constructed as a team, and that’s a product of years of molding by head coach Quin Snyder. I like the upset here. Prediction: Jazz in 6
Eastern Conference
(1) Toronto Raptors vs. (8) Washington Wizards
The Toronto Raptors finally broke through in Game One, earning a victory in a game one of a series for the first time since 2001. The current core, which includes DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, has always fallen to the narrative of failing in the playoffs when it mattered most. This year, earning the one seed in the east over the favorited Cavaliers and Celtics was step one in the redefining of that same narrative. DeRozan showed a next-level ability at times this season, as he finally started to shoot from the perimeter. Toronto boasts one of the better benches in the NBA, so there are few plays to take off when squaring up against the Northsiders. The Wizards have been enduring some identity crisis issues, as they played better and more efficiently with John Wall off the floor due to injury. Wall is one of the most explosive players in the NBA, but the numbers show Bradley Beal and Otto Porter are the best versions of themselves when he’s not out there. Can Washington find peace amidst Wall’s return? Even if they do, it shouldn’t be enough to deny Toronto a meeting with Cleveland or Indiana. Prediction: Raptors in 6
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Milwaukee Bucks
The battered and bruised Boston Celtics have a tremendous challenge in front of them with Giannis Antetokounmpo seemingly improving on a nightly basis. The Greek Freak can get to the rim at will, using his length as well as his size to overpower even the game’s best defenders. To surround him with Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe and Jabari Parker is merely a formality, with Giannis already possessing a lot of tools in his toolbox. But the Celtics possess one of the best interior defenders in the NBA in Al Horford, who historically has given players like Giannis fits. Horford forces today’s skilled bigs into isolation situations, often the weakest area (and the easiest to exploit) of their games, where he then forces them into low percentage attempts. Terry Rozier has stepped in admirably in Kyrie Irving’s absence, posting inflated numbers well above his career averages, and Jaylen Brown, along with rookie sensation Jayson Tatum, have both taken big steps forward under Brad Stevens. Lots of people are writing off the Celtics in this matchup due to the long list of injuries, but Marcus Smart is looming, and if the Celtics can push this thing to seven games, he could be the difference maker in who advances. Prediction: Celtics in 7
(3) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (6) Miami Heat
We have been watching the Process come to life before our very eyes. The Sixers finished the regular season on a 16 game winning streak, half of those contests without Joel Embiid, accelerated by the emergence of runaway Rookie of the Year candidate Ben Simmons. Simmons put up monster numbers throughout the season, but he really started to put it together down the stretch. The healthy return of Markelle Fultz seemed to give Philly some life, as has strong play from Marco Bellineli and Ersan Ilyasova. The Miami Heat lack pure superstar talent, instead relying on Erik Spoelstra’s crafty playcalling to milk the most out of stars like Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic. Wade has played quite well since his triumphant return to Miami following the Cleveland debacle, stepping into a large void left behind by Dion Waiters, who is done for the season due to injury. Robert Covington and Dario Saric join JJ Redick in what is a strong supporting cast for Philly, and once Embiid returns to the floor, they might be the team to beat in the East. Process not complete, but well on its way. Prediction: Sixers in 6
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Indiana Pacers
This series is an interesting one, given playoff-LeBron James can single-handedly carry teams on postseason runs, as he did with every Cavaliers team in his first stint there. Although LeBron has shown zero signs of slowing down offensively, even in his age-33 season in the league, his defense, and especially his team’s defense, has been suspect. After a fast start post-trade, the new look Cavs regressed down the stretch and didn’t prove to be much better than the original product that Cleveland trotted out to begin the year. Victor Oladipo had a terrific first season with the Pacers, posting career highs across the board, but you might not know that because the Pacers played the fewest nationally televised games all season. Oladipo proved to be at his best when mixing and matching the dribble drive with much-improved perimeter shooting, which could prove troublesome for a porous opposing defense. Myles Turner continues to get better, and Lance Stephenson has shown flashes of the player he was his first time through Indy. Playoff LeBron is a freak of nature, but the anemic Cavaliers defense is going to help show James a first round exit because Oladipo will not be contained. Prediction: Pacers in 6
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